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Semi-Pro DFS Podcast


MLB DFS Opening Night

Jul 23, 2020

By David S McIvor                                         @SemiProDFS                                       July 22nd 2020

 

We made it, Baseball fans…

                   Over 3 months of deliberation, formatting and league structure. The time has come for us to watch the Boys of Summer get to work. Though not as usually enjoyed by the hardcore season holder type fan, which will have to watch on the T.V like the rest of us. Regardless, even those groups must feel a certain delight as their favorite team takes the field in a shortened but sought-after return of Regular Season Baseball. I know I have, the sipping of beers on my deck haven’t quite been the same…

                   I’m honored to be here and break down the 2 game opening night DFS Slate for you all, so lets get out of this awe struck mindset and get into the headspace that will win us some cash.

Starting Pitchers

New Yankee Gerrit Cole(10k-DK/11.4k-FD) will take on defending World Series Champ Max Scherzer(8.6k-DK/10.7k-FD)

Tommy John recoveree Johnny Cueto(5K-DK/6.6-FD) will throw against Dodger staple Clayton Kershaw(7.7k-DK/10.3k-FD)

                   Off the top I think the play here, unless you want to get super potent on bats; is to fade Cueto. The dilemma here is which two of three STUD pitchers are you going to roll with. Gerrit Coles’ Strikeout upside is just too high to ignore in this spot. I rank him #1, with my #2 being Clayton Kershaw. I by no means have anything against Max considering he gives up 0.94 Homeruns per 9 innings, is stronger against Right handed batters, and mix in with the .203 batting average the Yankees have against him… yeah, close 3rd.

Gerrit Cole – With a 40% Strikeout rate and 2.5 ERA in 2019, Cole is always a perennial 10+ k a game pitcher. This is so essential when it comes to DFS. Washington, I feel is coming off a large hangover due to a very improbable World Series win against a cheating team. Lets not forget Cole was also the ace for Houston last year in that same World Series. Lost in game 1 but rebounded for a 9 K  1 ER outing in game 5. I worry about Soto a tad who seems to be dialed in when it comes to Cole, but I feel like Cole needs to wash the Houston mantra off  and begin his new career with the Yankees on a high note.

Clayton Kershaw – Gives you salary relief pivoting from Scherzer. Not the “ideal” DFS type pitcher but can still produce a nice floor for points. He was just above an even 3 ERA last year with his pitches causing a lot of ground ball issues. The spot here is more ideal going against a San Fran team that is a shell of its former self. With a wRC+ at about 83, I feel like this worse look Giants squad could even get lower. It is just a fantastic spot for Kershaw.

 

 

 

 

Projected Lineups

                  

 

Yankees -140

1DJ LeMahieu 2B R 

2Aaron Judge OF R 

3Gleyber Torres SS R 

4Giancarlo Stanton OF R 

5Aaron Hicks OF S 

6Gary Sanchez C-1B R 

7Luke Voit C-1B R 

8Brett Gardner OF L 

9Giovanny Urshela 3B R 

 

Nationals +120

1Trea Turner SS R 

2Adam Eaton OF L 

3Juan Soto OF L 

4Howie Kendrick 2B R 

5Eric Thames C-1B L 

6Starlin Castro 2B R 

7Carter Kieboom 3B R 

8Kurt Suzuki C-1B R 

9Victor Robles OF R 

 

 

Giants +225

1Mike Yastrzemski OF L 

2Austin Slater C-1B R

3Hunter Pence OF R 

4Wilmer Flores 2B R 

5Pablo Sandoval 3B S 

6Mauricio Dubon 2B R 

7Brandon Crawford SS L 

8Tyler Heineman C-1B S

9Yolmer Sanchez 2B S

 

Dodgers -310

1Mookie Betts OF R 

2Max Muncy C-1B L 

3Justin Turner 3B R 

4Cody Bellinger OF L 

5Corey Seager SS L 

6A.J. Pollock OF R 

7Joc Pederson OF L 

8Will Smith C-1B R 

9Enrique Hernandez 2B R 

 

 

 

Batters

 

Corey Seager(4.4k-DK/3.2k-FD) 0.876 OPS against Right handed Pitchers and 1.008 OPS Against Johnny Cueto alone, not to mention the 12 for 34 with 3 homers. Corey is a Lefty and Johnny owns a whopping 1.263 OPS against lefties. Yuck.

Gary Sanchez(4.4k-DK/3.3k-FD) maybe lacking on righty splits, but I feel after the Yankees are done dealing with Scherzer, they will get to feast upon a lacklustre Nationals bullpen. With an ISO of 0.302 and wOBA of .357 I think Sanchez could be a thorn in Scherzers’ side.

Juan Soto(4.8k-DK/4k-FD) the guy is a threat at all time at the plate, but also seems to have Coles’ number. Holding a .414 wOBA and .416 OBP, as much as I like Cole; this can’t be ignored.

Mauricio Dubon(2.1k-DK/2.3k-FD) with San Fran in for a rough opening night, the lone bright spot is Dubon who has a small sample size of 2 for 2 against Kershaw with 1 dinger, add Dubons’ .823 OPS against lefties and this becomes a real good value play to one off in your lineups.

Aaron Hicks(4.2k-DK/2.6k-FD) as switch hitter, can put himself on the left side and expose Max for his lack of lefty prowess. Hicks holds a .355 wOBA and is very patient with 16.2% walk rate.

 

Stacks

Yankees 5 Hicks/6 Sanchez seems to be a viable mini stack, if you have the cash flow to get to Voit and Gardner that could be a very contrarian build.

Dodgers 2 Muncy/ 3 Turner/ 4 Bellinger/5 Seager/6 Pollock/7 Pedersen would be fantastic if you could feasibly do it. But for me, I’m going to relegate to the 5-6-7 and build from there.

 

Good luck on Opening Night.