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Semi-Pro DFS Podcast


MLB Wednesday Walk-Off

Jul 29, 2020

MLB DFS Wednesday Walk-Off (July 29th 2020)

By David S McIvor                    @SemiProDFS

Wednesday evening gives us an identical 9 game main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 P.M ET.

 

Pitchers

 

Studs

 

  • Gerrit Cole (R) $11,400-DK / $11,700-FD, Yankees @ Orioles
  • Mike Soroka (R) 9,500-DK / 8,800-FD, Rays @ Braves
  • Chris Paddack (R) 8,400-DK / 9,700-FD, Padres @ Giants

 

This was supposed to be a Cole start vs the Phillies at Home, but COVID-19 had intervened when Philly was visited by the Infested Miami Marlins. This now takes New York on the road to Baltimore where we could see a very juicy DFS start for Cole. Baltimore last year had a SO rate of .256 as a team. Take out their most consistent hitter in Trey Mancini (IL) and the probability of this middling .246 batting team to trounce Cole is unlikely. Cole boasts a monster 13.82 SO/9 and .186 AVG against. The ONLY thing to worry about here is game script and the distance the Yankees are willing to let him go in this beatdown.

Soroka is coming of a decent start where he received no help on offence, pitching 6 scoreless innings with no walks and 3 strikeouts against the Mets. He now gets to take the mound against a Rays team on the road with a strikeout rate of .267 in 5 games so far this year. We also know Soroka can start crisp as he posted a 1.20 ERA through his first 8 starts last year… Plus, me and him were both born in Calgary Alberta Canada; so a little hometown rub from me.

Paddack is coming off a 1 walk, 6 scoreless innings victory against the Diamondbacks in his first Opening Day start. He gets to face the offensively stunted Giants squad that ranked second last in the NL last year for batting average at .239. missing the likes of Longoria and Belt(both IR) and those numbers have a slim chance of improving. Paddack pitched against the Giants 3 times in his rookie season resulting in a 1-0 record with a 2.65 ERA and 21 K’s

 

Value

 

  • Daniel Ponce de Leon $7,500-DK / $5,800-FD, Cardinals @ Twins

If you REALLY want to fit high-priced batters into your lineup, then this is how far I would go down. Ponce de Leon is more of a long inning reliever as of late but with the season ending for Miles Mikolas, Ponce de Leon looks to receive a spot in the rotation. The first 3 games Ponce de Leon started last year for the cards were short BUT had a 1.66 ERA and a long inning relief spot in his 4th game that saw him strike out 9 players through 5 and 1/3 innings. His numbers are also better in road games. I do not recommend you look here, but possible upside if you are searching for value or pivots.

 

Notable Stacks

*Note that these are based of projected lineups and could change prior to the start of the game*

 

Top DraftKings and FanDuel Lineup:

Manny Machado (R)

Tommy Pham (R)

Eric Hosmer (L)

Wil Myers (R)

Total: $16,200-DK / $13,100-FD Padres @ Giants

I am going to go ahead and not factor in the 10.50 ERA Johnny Cueto has against Lefties in 2019 as it was only a 16-inning sample size. But instead focus on the 5.19 ERA at AT&T park in 2018 with an opponent average of .333. The Padres feel like they are in a spot to pop against an aging Band-Aid of a pitcher, which Hosmer and Myers will take advantage of due to their favorable RHP split. It is potent bats vs a dusty pitcher with no offence, don’t overthink it.

 

Batters

 

Salvador Perez $2,600-DK / $2,800-FD

I am always a “spend down on catcher” guy. And we are getting a VERY good and flexible price for a player who started the season with a 4-game hit streak including 2 homers. Keep in mind he is coming off an injury which kept him out a majority of the 2019 season, making him a ghost to the beginner DFS eye. It also helps that Boyd has stumbled out of the gate and is still priced like his 11.56 SO/9 2019 season, which I assure will regress.

 

Cody Bellinger $5,300-DK / $4,400-FD

The slow start to the season ends tonight when Bellinger takes on newcomer Cristian Javier. The Houston starting pitcher staff is as broken as their reputation. Javier has only played 12 innings above Double-A level. Though he does have a 1.74 ERA and 37% K rate in over 100 innings, he walks almost 13% of batters. Bellinger also SMASHES right-handed pitchers, and I predict it will be a rough way to enter the league for the young 23 year old.

 

WARNING

On a side note, I feel like it is imperative to keep a close eye on all your lineups going forward. I have seen a recent uptick in last minute replacement players due to injury overcompensation or COVID related issues. Not catching these changes can ruin your whole slate. I recommend downloading multiple apps that notify you on roster changes, and even set an alarm on your phone for 5 mins before Lock to double check your lineups.

Good Luck!