Sep 8, 2022
The Semi-Pro Show Milly Maker Breakdown
By David S McIvor @SemiproDFS
Drinking copious amounts of Alcohol on the final day of the weekend in my area is called “Sunday Funday”.
And a fun day it shall be with 13 games on the Draftkings Milly Maker contest.
As usually a single lineup dart thrower, I wouldn’t actually recommend even playing this tournament due to the 150 entries a single person is allowed; but I still buy lottery tickets so obviously odds mean jack shit to me. There is nothing better than waking up every Sunday knowing you have a chance at winning 1 million dollars American (1.31 Million Canadian where I am) and I seem to convince myself that that WILL HAPPEN ONE DAY.
Well here’s to trying. Lets go Game by Game.
Philadelphia (-200) @ Detroit (+170) - Phi -4 ATS - O/U 48.5
Philly is being hyped up so much this year and I think sharp bettors may come in on Detroit in this spot. The new dynamic duo of AJ Brown ($6,400) and DeVonta Smith ($5,500) might eat into each others FPTS, and that’s only basing on Jalen Hurts ($6,800) making his throws and not calling his own number inside the redzone. Which he will. But if there is a QB I don’t trust more than Hurts for throwing a ball it’s Detroit’s Jared Goff ($5,400). But coming off watching his former team win a Superbowl must give this guy al little push, right? I’m hoping him and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,100) continues their rapport from last season, which seen St. Brown Garner double digit targets in his last 6 games and averaged 26.18 FPTS. I’m going to go with Detroit on Moneyline, spread, and the Over and not because I’m “JuSt a CoWbOyS fAn”
Pick = WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,100)
Baltimore (-330) @ New York Jets (+265) - Bal -7 ATS - O/U 44.5
Old Ass Joe Flacco ($4,800) gets the start for NY Jets and that’s NOT A GOOD THING. I want literally nothing to do with the Jets. Baltimore on the other hand with Lamar Jacksons ($7,300) contract negotiations in limbo still to start the season… Makes me think he’s going to play like an animal. He is going to miss Hollywood Brown here but I think taking shot at WR 2 Devin Duvernay ($3,800) and usual suspect TE Mark Andrews ($6,800) could both compliment his play… But Jackson naked is the way I would play this. Baltimore ML, ATS, and UNDER
Picks = QB Lamar Jackson ($7,300)
Baltimore DST ($4,000)
New Orleans (-230) @ Atlanta (+190) - NOW -5.5 ATS - O/U 42.5
Atlanta is a mess. I think there are a lot of sport bettors and commentators that are trying to get cute promoting the Falcons in this opening week match up with the Saints, but I think that’s super dumb. Marcus Mariota ($5,200) has been coming off the bench since the 2019 campaign and always seems to be injured. This team is a heap of shit if it wasn’t for Kyle Pitts ($5,700) the lone bright spot on this team. Now New Orleans I’m not exactly sure what’s going on there, with new coaching staff and QB’s playing rock/paper/scissors to see who plays what quarter… I was also a mess last year and they still got a 9-8 record and slightly missed playoffs. The only lighting rod player I’m willing to spend on Alvin Kamara ($7,600) as a double threat extraordinaire. NWO on ML, ATS, UNDER
Pick = RB Alvin Kamara ($7,600)
New England (+150) @ Miami (-175) - Mia – 3.5 ATS - O/U 46.5
For me, this is an ewww game. I don’t see many FTPS coming anywhere from the game. If I HAD to choose. RB Raheem Mostert ($4,800) slows the game down for a panicky Tua Tagovailoa ($5,700). Mike Gesicki ($4,800) would be my alternate for Miami and then Devante Parker ($4,800) revenge game on the NE side. Fuck this game. UNDER only.
Picks = RB Raheem Mostert ($4,800)
TE Mike Gesicki ($4,800)
Pittsburgh (+230) @ Cincinnati (-280) - Cin -6.5 ATS - O/U 44.5
Hot take. Trubisky gets some resemblance of OL protection for the first time in hi starting role and has a shoot out with Cincinnati. I feel Bengals still win this game, but it’s an OVER total and Pittsburgh ATS. RB Joe Mixon ($7,100) benefits from the spread of offense as Joe Burrow can dink and dunk in a pressure scramble and possible extra ground plays due to rain in the forecast. Same goes for RB Najee Harris ($6,400).
Picks = RB Joe Mixon ($7,100)
RB Najee Harris ($6,400)
Indianapolis (-330) @ Houston (+265) - Ind -7 ATS - O/U 46
Love Indy in this spot, I’m spamming new QB Matty “Ice” Ryan ($5,500) and WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500) but FADING RB Jonathan Taylor ($9,100). Reason being game script and price tag. if Indy gets up early there is no reason to pound Taylor. I would actually be more interested in RB Nyheim Hines ($5,100) if game gets out of hand. I want 0% of Houston. INDY ML, ATS, and Under
Picks = QB Matt Ryan ($5,500)
WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500)
Indianapolis DST ($3,900)
Jacksonville (+120) @ Washington (-140) - Was -2.5 ATS - O/U 44
With the Jitters of former Rookie sensation Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) hopefully over and his plethora of new weapons; I see Jacksonville coming out with a win against an unproven on-field Commanders team. Jacksonville has 3 different “Jones” in their receiving core but I’m only looking at 1 this week and that’s Marvin Jones Jr ($4,100). Pairing with new TE Evan Engram ($3,500) I think this offence could smash week 1. I don’t know where the Commanders will go with new QB Carson Wentz ($5,500) but I’m willing to wait at least a week to find out. JKV ML, AST, and OVER
Picks = QB Trevor Lawrence ($5,600)
WR Marvin Jones Jr ($4,100)
TE Evan Engram ($3,500)
San Francisco (-310) @ Chicago (+255) - SF -7 ATS - O/U 40.5
Hate both teams. But one is just so glaringly bad. The only option I’m willing to work with Week 1 is San Fran DST ($4,100) which is the most expensive DST but man… This could be a shit show for the Bears. Might end up with Trey Lance ($6,000) Naked in the game script of him calling his own number in the red zone. Terrible DFS game though. SF ML, ATS, and ….Under.
Picks = San Francisco DST ($4,100)
Cleveland (+105) @ Carolina (-125) - Car -1.5 ATS - O/U 42
Browns ground game runs a lot here making Nick Chubb ($6,500) super viable. I do think Baker Mayfield ($5,300) gets revenge here and hopefully the Brown D line doesn’t bury him here, because they are going to try. My favorite pick here is going to be Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) as an out for Mayfield to dump. Carolina ML, ATS, and OVER.
Pick = RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,500)
Green Bay (-125) @ Minnesota (+105) - GB -1.5 ATS - O/U 47
Green Bay has a lot of new down field options both Aged and Inexperienced. The only reliable option is RB the Duo. My pick would be Aaron Jones ($6,700) due to the receiving factor he possesses. But lets not forget in the past how rough the Packers can come out of the gate to start seasons. Making the Vikings one of my favorite picks this week. QB Kirk Cousins ($6,100) will spread but WR Adam Thielen ($5,400) at such a juicy price to not stack. I’m even dabbling in Vikings DST ($2,200) here as salary play while I wait for GB to show me something without Adams. Minnesota ML, ATS, UNDER.
Picks = RB Aaron Jones ($6,700
QB Kirk Cousins ($6,100)
WR Adam Thielen ($5,400)
Minnesota DST ($2,200)
New York Giants (+205) @ Tennessee (-245) - Ten -5.5 - O/U 43.5
Both teams feel like a battle of the RB’s Saquon Barkley ($6,100) and Derrick Henry ($8,600). I would throw a flyer at Kadarius Toney ($4,100) but man, I do not trust the QB situation in NYG. Albeit there is always that 1 game at least in week 1 that is a major upset… And this could be it. Calling my shot and going NYG ML, ATS, UNDER.
Picks = RB Saquon Barkley ($6,100)
Las Vegas (+145) @ L.A Chargers (-170) - LAC -3.5 - O/U 52
Ooooooo. Great game. Probably the best game of week 1. I like Chargers win here, staying away from the ATS and the O/U. RB Austin Ekeler ($8,200) and WR Keenan Allen ($7,000) QB Justin Herbert ($7,600) pop to me in this spot… but so fucking expensive. Las Vegas on paper is built great. And I want to wait a week to see the Derek Carr ($5,900) distribution to Darren Waller ($5,400), Davante Adams ($8,100), Justin Jacobs ($6,300) and Hunter Renfrow ($5,800). Great game though… Great fucking game.
Picks = QB Justin Herbert ($7,600)
RB Austin Ekeler ($8,200)
WR Keenan Allen ($7,000)
Kansas City (-260) @ Arizona (+215) - KC -6 - O/U 53
Patrick Mahomes ($7,700) is the best, don’t get it twisted. Don’t complicate this game. We want to buff the Cardinals but I’m just not seeing it right now. It’s a big pressure spot for Kyler Murray ($7,200), meaning the only player I have reservations in is RB James Connor ($7,000). Pair Mahomes with Mecole Hardman ($4,600) who takes the Tyreek Hill role. KC ML, AST and UNDER.
Picks = QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,700)
WR Mecole Hardman ($4,600)
I'm going to be some sort of liquored due to the last Softball tournament of the year, hitting dingers, so hopefully I can kill two birds with one stone and win two tournaments in one day... *crossing fingers*.
Good Luck!