Sep 5, 2022
The Semi Pro Show 22-23 NFL Season Preview & Predictions
By David S McIvor @SemiProDFS
… Aw shit, here we go again.
My favorite time of year to throw money away, on the hope of making BANK at least 1 week of the season. Though I have yet to make BANK, I feel like this year is increasingly possible after winning a couple small Piggy BANKS last year. There really is nothing better than Monday night waiting on the final game to complete a full week parlay on a ticket I filled out while hung over at a 7-11 before work. Or finishing up a Sunday with a couple players left on your DFS team to play while already cashing. From DFS, outright bets, Futures… It really doesn’t get much better than NFL Football for a filthy casual like me.
Don’t really know what I’ve invested the past 8 years, nor do I want to know the exact number; but God fucking forbid my Wife ever finds out.
Overview
With a tumultuous off season of trades, signings, and preseason of injuries. The 22-23 campaign, surprisingly… Doesn’t look much different from last year as it pertains to potential divisional finishing placements. The usual suspects should be clinching divisions and the basement dwellers will be crowding the bottom, upsetting their fans. But of course, what would NFL be without upset fans (coming from a Dallas Cowboys supporter)?
Lets get started in the NFC.
NFC North Predictions.
Minnesota
Biggest change this year is new head coach Kevin O’Connell, who was Offensive Coordinator for the Super Bowl Champion Rams last year, and former QB coach for Cousins in his last year with Washington. I’ve never been a Kirk Cousins hater but can accept he has never really captured his potential his entire career. I find with the offense that surrounds him (Cook, Jefferson, Thielen, Smith) this could be the year we see what he’s capable of.
Green Bay
The Devante Adams trade is a fucking bummer for this team. I see Rodgers having a hard time corralling a potent receiving core with both age and inexperience. Luckily for them, GB is built to keep points off the board. If ayahuasca enlightened, non-jabbed, 38-year-old Rodgers can keep the noise from cunt reporters out of his head and focuses on his team, he can get a shot to prove that he can get over the Playoff Hump
Detroit
Oof, Jared Goff. Watching last year’s Rams team win a Superbowl must have been tough. But with a couple of draft signings, this team should be better than last year (which is not fucking hard to do). New rookie Hutchinson should be the Flex Seal on the bottom of this leaky defensive boat, and if Goff worked on his accuracy this off season; St. Brown, Williams, Chark, Hockenson will cause problems… Unfortunately, I do NOT have faith Goff can get better.
Chicago
Absolutely abysmal offensive line to help Justin Field flourish. Best receiver on this team will be Mooney but he won’t get the ball enough to do anything with it. TE Kmet will prosper from this shit-show of a team… Poor Bears fans.
NFC East Predictions
Philadelphia
Fuck. An improved defense from a year ago and the acquisition of A.J Brown from Tennessee, making him and D. Smith arguably the best WR tandem in the league. It now falls on the shoulders of Jalen Hurts to take the next step and reduce his INT and Fumble numbers. Personally, I think he stumbles this year. But even if he does, the capable Gardner Minshew waits in the wings. The tool are here, they just need to execute.
Dallas
NOT A GOOD OFFSEASON FOR MY BOYS. The loss in talent from both offensive and defensive sides are a goddamn issue. The only supplemental in this case is for Dak Prescott to play like he’s worth every dime of the 40 mil per year he makes. I’m hoping the “Black Kirk Cousins” remark from departing Amari Cooper lights an unextinguishable fire under his ass. With still the best RB duo and WR’s Gallup and Lamb, there is plenty of options to outscore teams… But dude, It’s going to have to be a lot of points because Dallas looks like a sieve defensively. DFS tip: take Slot or WR2’s against Dallas this year.
Washington
Wentz, mmmkay sure. This is not the Indy system anymore and there is no J. Taylor to bail you out of a lot of situations. Gibson is a fine RB but the real threat here is WR stud Terry McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas (If he can stay healthy). I feel they lose a lot of tight games this year.
N.Y Giants
I really cant make my mind up about Daniel Jones, at times it looks like he’s got that dog in him… and the next play you’re wondering “who let the fucking dog’s out?” This season the dog doesn’t come home, and we see Tyrod Taylor take reigns and show us what Golladay and Toney are made of. *Spoiler alert* They still suck though.
NFC South Predictions
Saints
How this team was able to win almost double-digit games last year still blows my mind. And this team is only better with the offseason signings they got both Defensively and Offensively. Michael Thomas returning and Jarvis Landry Joining the fold gives them all the weapons they need. QB worries me… but it did last year, and they pulled through it, so what the fuck do I know.
Carolina
You probably stopped reading after this prediction, and I honestly don’t blame you but hear me out. Baker Mayfield is Good. I wish he’d stop doing commercials and focus more on his skills; but he is good. He was forged in one of the worst systems in the NFL, now he gets a chance to flourish with the likes of the best double threat player in the league Christian McCaffrey, reunite with WR3 Higgins, deep threat Anderson, and nuclear talent D.J Moore. Time for Mayfield to prove he’s more than capable.
Tampa Bay
Brady gets hurt this year. Osteoporosis is no joke. Which is unfortunate because this WR core is un-fucking-believable, like someone dicked around with a Madden roster. Regardless, I’m confident even if Brady doesn’t get hurt, this is the talent falloff year… And if I’m going to be honest the writing is on the wall after retiring, re-instating, then ghosting preseason for a critical amount of time… The regular sports media keeps fluffing him because he’s the GOAT, sure boys; I tend to call it like I see it. He’s the active QB of a team that is gunning for a deep run. Long story short - he’s unplugged, should have stayed retired… And this year will show it.
Atlanta
NFL fucked Ridley and it’s sad. Atlanta will be worst team in the league this year. O/U is 4.5 games this year take the under. Poor Kyle Pitts.
NFC West Predictions
LA Rams
A vindicated Matthew Stafford comes into this year a tad banged up but with a new tool in Allen Robinson on top of Kupp, Van Jefferson, Higbee, and hopefully a full year of Akers. Whatever the secret sauce was last year, I don’t expect it to change.
Arizona
Kyler Murray gets an out with Hollywood Brown coming in to replace Hopkins while on suspension. The big question is how Murray performs. I have my reservations about it but will most likely be a litmus test type season with a 46 mil a year tag hanging over his head. So a lot of on and off field pressure for Kyler.
San Francisco
The Jimmy G/Trey Lance shit is something this team doesn’t need while they continue to make their run under Shanahan. Also losing a couple pieces of defense doesn’t bolster their overall grade when committing to an unproven Trey Lance. An absolute committee RB group, very thin WR core with a scramble/run QB could be a mess; and a lot of pro writers don’t realize… it’s going to be a mess.
Seattle
But not as messy as this. Pete Carroll on his last years here trying to rebuild, is harder than watching the immediate aftermath of Superbowl 49. The QB situation is an absolute shit sandwich. They have a stud TE in Fant, but go ahead and give Dissly 8 mil a year… WTF is going on here? Excellent receiving core, unfortunately they need someone to pass them the ball; and that’s not going to happen as often as they would like.
NFC Playoff Bracket
Dallas Beats New Orleans
Green Bay Beats Philadelphia
Minnesota Beats Arizona
L.A Rams Beat Dallas
Minnesota Beats Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
L.A Rams Beat Minnesota
Let’s move on to the absolute unit of a conference, The AFC
AFC North Predictions
Cincinnati
The Superbowl losers, had one goal going into the offseason. And that was to bolster their protection of all-star QB Joe Burrow. And they did just that. With their QB getting more time to pick targets down field (Chase, Higgins, Boyd), I have the Bengals easily finishing first and gliding to the playoffs.
Baltimore
Defensively I think the Raven have arguable the best Secondary in the league, throwing on these guys is not going to be easy. My issue with Baltimore is their offence run by Jackson. Losing Hollywood Brown is a MAJOR detriment to the down field attack and could prove costly in close games. Good thing he’s QB and RB1.
Pittsburgh
Another messy QB situation. Everything else looks decent on the defensive side but I have a hard time seeing how a Trubisky led offence is going to get this team in a playoff spot. Maybe Pickett will be ready sooner than later ala Justin Herbert.
Cleveland
Jesus Christ, what is wrong with this front office? Watson will be gone till week 13 and Brisset led Browns will be so far in the basement at that point that it won’t matter. Moving on.
AFC East Predictions
Buffalo
Excited to see how this team rebounds from that exciting exit last year in the playoffs against the Chiefs. I personally think it sparks an unrelenting rage and we see Buffalo run roughshod this year. The offence is maybe not AS strong as the previous two years, but I expect Josh Allen to take full form here and negate any regression. Look forward to seeing this team play.
Miami
Don’t like this pick as I’m not an overall Tua Believer. But Gesicki and Tyreek can make bad QBs look good. With a plethora of RBs to gameplan for, and a solid secondary: Tua needs to evolve 1 step and playoffs could be in reach.
New England
Mac Jones could be an above average QB, but unfortunately with a low/mediocre offensive group, I don’t see how patriot can flourish to the point of playoffs. Unless Bill Belichick has some weird individual gameplans (without former assistant McDaniels), which I wouldn’t be surprised about. I expect this team to be very quiet and, honestly boring all year.
N.Y Jets
Cougar Bait Zach Wilson can still be argued as an incomplete QB, but with a team as perennially bad as the Jets have been… It’s the best they’ve got. Their best is still the worst in this division.
AFC South Predictions
Indianapolis
Matt Ryan coming over from a team he dragged to the Superbowl should be seen as nothing but positive for Indy fans. Ryan was in an ATL system that never bolstered their Offensive Line and got away with Matty Ice being stellar his whole career. Now with toys like Jonathan Taylor, Pittman Jr, and rookie Alec Pierce; this team should walk straight through to playoffs in a weak/troubled division.
Tennessee
We have not seen game breaking ability that Derrick Henry possesses since Beastmode in Seattle. But this team has lost down field talent and offensive line talent, making it hard to keep up with Indy in this division. If Henry gets hurt, this team could be close to the basement.
Jacksonville
Another front office I feel doesn’t know what they’re doing, BUT Lawrence should be due for a resurgence after a tumultuous rookie season. WR Christian Kirk signing 18 mil a year makes me shake my head but as a stout DFS player, I know he has the ceiling performance to earn it. Plus underdogs like Zay Jones, Marvin Jones Jr., and TE Evan Engram… I would not be surprised the Jags put up ridiculous offensive numbers and push for bottom rung playoff spot.
Houston
…Your problems continue, I don’t see an avenue for this team to be close to making playoffs. It could also turn into a QB battle between Kyle Allen and Davis Mills, if Mills cannot reach the necks level(see what I did there*wink*)
AFC West Predictions
Oh boy… Best Division I have ever seen, and would not be surprised to see any of these teams in 1st.
Kansas
Lost Tyreek but gained Juju… Honestly, we can talk all we want about the gains and losses: but the best QB in the league plays for this team. He will find a way, but if he gets hurt this team is super fucked.
L.A Chargers
I think there is no other team that bolstered better defensively than the Chargers this off season. Couple that with the obvious progression and maturity of Herbert, who shined last year offensively… And you got one of my picks for a deep playoff run.
Denver
Yes, Wilson is good. But new team after 10 years with a system can really change things around. And I just see Denver stumbling out of the gate. I see Sutton being first team all fantasy this year also. But there is something here that’s not popping off to me.
Las Vegas
Obviously, the pickup of Devante Adams makes this team more potent than they were last year and I love this team for what they have done. But someone must be bottom of the division and Raiders seem to be the short straw for me. Any of these teams could be top or bottom, its an absolute wild division.
AFC Playoff Bracket
Kansas City Beats Baltimore
Cincinnati Beats Denver
L.A Chargers Beats Indianapolis
Buffalo Beats L.A Chargers
Kansas City Beats Cincinnati
AFC Championship Game
Buffalo Beats Kansas City
Superbowl 57 Prediction
Buffalo Bills Beat L.A Rams
Super jacked to have NFL back to fill the ever-growing void of post-pandemic sports depression. That shit was real to me and affected a lot of how I viewed sports, and basically killed my podcast. NFL (albeit, not perfect) was the only organization to keep it as pre-Covid as possible in the aspect of casual viewers and DFS gambling fans. I appreciate it, and cant wait to spew more content for the rest of this season
Captain Showdowns for Thursday and Mondays, and NFL Sunday Milly Maker articles.
Good Luck this year, let’s get those fat wallets.