Sep 7, 2022
The Semi-Pro Show Thursday Showdown Bets & DFS
By David S McIvor @SemiproDFS
Kickoff is almost here.
The season opens with what I have predicted the Superbowl match up will be, so obviously this campaign is starting the right way… But very difficult to predict right out of the gate. Let’s dive in.
Overview
Bills come into this game with a devastating OT loss to the Chiefs in the Playoffs last year, a loss that has actually changed the Playoff OT rules. That gut punch of a defeat is going to propel this team to be even better than last year… And what better litmus test then to face the reigning Superbowl champions in Week 1. On Thursday night, the L.A Rams will be at home and get to lift the championship banner to the rafters of the brand new SoFi Stadium. A special moment for this team and their fans to experience while realizing it is all possible to repeat as champions this year. Bills are down some defensive pieces and the Rams come in “healthy” but are noted for some nagging injuries to starting QB Stafford.
Bets
Buffalo -135 @ L.A Rams +115
Buffalo by 2.5 against the spread
O/U is 52.5
I feel the hunger that possesses Buffalo is more apparent than L.A who is coming off a Superbowl Win. L.A will have stars in their eyes on and off the field here. Though I’m not overly confident due to the depth of both teams. I'm going Bills moneyline, and spread; and take the OVER on point total.
Showdown DFS
Captain picks:
Gold - Allen $12,000 (C $18,000)
Silver - Akers $8,000 (C $12,000)
Bronze - Higbee $5,600 (C $8,400)
Allen I predict will be the highest FPTS getter in this game, only because of his propensity to launch large throws down field and call his own number in the red zone for touchdowns.
Akers is a call I made to possibly save more salary for a depth lineup. While a bit risky due to past injuries, It is possible that game script sees Akers pound in 3 TD’s from inside the 5 yard mark
Higbee is a serious flyer that I’m only really counting in if WR3 Van Jefferson is out for this game. If that’s the case I see Higbee getting 6+ targets; 2 of them written up in the End Zone.
Good Plays
Kupp - $12,400 (C 18,600)
Stafford - $10,800 (C 16,200)
Davis - $7,200 (C 10,800)
Knox - $6,800 (C10,200)
Kupp was probably best DFS player all last year, even with the video on him; teams can’t seem to figure out his elusive playstyle. I will try and fit him in but I might try and diversify just because of his price tag.
Stafford should be used with Kupp, he does have a new weapon with Allen Robinson but I see him being worked in later in the season. That elbow injury bugs me though….
Davis is too much of a freak deep threat, and if Buffalo falls behind in this game late, Davis will be targeted more.
Knox… y’all are going to hate me for this, but narrative wise with the death of his younger brother (22) Aug 18th. These spots pop, I think there is no way he doesn’t get a TD in this game.
Value
Bills DST - $4,200 (C $6,300)
Gay - $3,800 (C $5,700)
Skowronek - $1,800 (C $2,700)
Bills Defense even without T. White, can cause a “possible” Stafford injury game to turn sour.
Gay the Kicker if the Rams cannot seem to penetrate the redzone.
Skowronek ONLY IF VAN JEFFERSON DOES NOT PLAY.
Good Luck!